Our Demographic Challenge: Citizen-Old Age Support Ratio

A Shrinking and Ageing Population and Workforce

Currently there are 4.9 working citizens supporting on elderly citizen aged 65 and above, down from 7.2 a decade ago.

At current birth rates and without immigration, our citizen population will begin to shrink around 2025.

By 2030 the number of elderly citizens will triple to 900,000 and there will only be 2.1 working-age citizens for each citizen aged 65 and above.

As more citizens retire and with fewer entering the working-age band, the number of working-age citizens will start to shrink by around 2020.

We will feel the impact of this in many ways.

We will see a REVERSAL OF THE TYPICAL FAMILY STRUCTURE.

Today, we generally have a few elderly members of the family with a larger number in the younger generations. By 2030, this family structure is likely to reverse itself with more elderly members than younger ones, as we live longer and each successive generation becomes smaller.

For society as a whole, a declining old-age support ratio points towards an INCREASING TAX AND ECONOMIC BURDEN ON OUR WORKING-AGE POPULATION.

A shrinking and ageing population could also mean a less vibrant and innovative economy.

There will be a shrinking customer base in Singapore, and companies may not be able to find adequate manpower. Multinational companies may therefore choose not to set up operations in Singapore, and Singapore-based businesses may down-size, close down or relocate.

As a result, we could see slower business activity and fewer career options that will match the higher aspirations of Singaporeans.

With an increasingly educated and mobile population, more of our young people could choose to leave for other exciting global cities, hollowing out our population and workforce, and worsening our old-age support ratio.